The case for Peter Luccin, full-time FC Dallas manager
After taking over for Nico Estévez mid-season, the long time assistant has earned the right to lead the squad going forward.
When now former FC Dallas manager Nico Estévez was let go in June, the message from Chief Soccer Officer Andre Zanotta and President Dan Hunt was clear: interim coach Peter Luccin has every chance to win the permanent job. The long time first team assistant took the big job after stops in Frisco as both a player and academy coach.
With four regular season left the results are clear: Luccin’s passed the audition and should be named the full-time manager.
It’s not even a case where Luccin is borderline and his promixity gets him the job. The results on the fixture list, the performance of his players, and what Luccin represents to the franchise have straight up earned him the job.
Much improved team performances
This entire writing was inspired by a Twitter thread from Sunday night where I broke down the numbers around Luccin’s coaching tenure. You can see the full thread here, but the highlights are below:
In the 14 league games since taking over Luccin’s record is seven wins, five losses, and two draws. Prior to the manager change Dallas had three wins, eight losses, and five draws in 16 matches. That’s 23 points to 14, with two matches to sample size equality. More importantly Luccin’s posting 1.64 points a game, which over a full campaign would be 55.76. That number isn’t just a playoff number, it’s a home field advantage number.
The goals for/against in that span is 33-26, meaning Dallas is a +7 under Luccin. In the wins Dallas is lighting up the scoreboard, with an aggregate score of 23-10. They’re not losing big however; Dallas has lost every game by a single goal. Even when the team falls they’re competitive, something that not every team can say.
During this run Dallas has beaten four playoff teams (as of 9/23) including the top team in the Western Conference LA Galaxy. Four of the five losses have come against playoff teams, including three in the top half of their conference. They’re both beating and hanging tough against better teams, a welcome sign of resilience.
There’s a real chance the Toros won’t make the playoffs for many reasons. Comeback losses against Real Salt Lake, Seattle, and Colorado all come to mind as fumbled points. Not taking advantaged of weakened squads like New England, Minnesota, and Vancouver also sting. The biggest reason however remains the early season hole of 14 points in 16 matches. Only so many managers could dig out of that; the fact that Luccin is within shouting distance of doing so deserves plaudits.
Individuals showing out
While the overall performance is encouraging, another measure of coaching success is players performing post change. After Luccin took the helm a few different players have shown a new level:
Sebastian Lletget: Easily the biggest “winner” under Luccin, Da Boy has been Da Man since Luccin seized control. Prior to the change Lletget had one goal, zero assists, and 1.0 xG in 13 MLS games and six starts. Since Lletget has appeared in every league game starting 11 times posting one goal, six assists, and 2.1 xG. Two other stats of note: pre-change he had 18 shot creating actions and one goal creating action. Post-change he’s got 43 SCAs and 7 GCAs, proving him to be the creator Dallas needed when they acquired him in 2022’s summer window.
Logan Farrington: 2024’s third overall SuperDraft pick carried high hopes into the campaign, earning comparisons to fellow SuperDraft starlet Duncan McGuire in Orlando City. While that hasn’t come to pass yet, that doesn’t mean the Big Dawg hasn’t been one of Luccin’s success stories. In MLS play Farrington has four goals and five assists in 14 appearances under the interim boss. He’s also got seven starts for Luccin, with just two under Estévez although some of those starts came as a result of Petar Musa’s availability or lack thereof. Either way, the performance when Farrington plays can’t be argued.
Tsiki Ntsabeleng: This one is measured less on ability and more on availability. The knock on Tsiki since his arrival in 2022 via the SuperDraft wasn’t his skills, it was his frequent unavailability for various reasons. That’s changed under Luccin; all but one of Tsiki’s 11 MLS starts have come under Luccin, and with four games left Tsiki’s already reached a new high in total minutes played at 942. For a player plagued with an “it’s always something” reputation coming into the season, Luccin has helped Tsiki abolish that while enabling him to be a meaningful contributor.
Petar Musa: FC Dallas’ new record signing was brought here to score goals. Under Estévez Musa had five goals in 15 MLS starts. In 12 appearances and nine starts under Luccin, Musa has 10 goals including his first career hat trick. Furthermore Musa has scored in six of the seven wins so far under Luccin. The Moose’s role as a box striker and reference point for the squad under Luccin has proven his best deployment, helping power the team down the stretch while turning Musa into an outside Golden Boot candidate.
Preparing for the future
One of FC Dallas’ hallmarks is the development of young players through the academy. They’re arguably the best in the United States at this with names like Ricardo Pepi, Chris Richards, Tanner Tessman, and Bryan Reynolds all finding success abroad while bringing back large transfer fees. The most successful periods of FC Dallas’ history have come when the roster is dotted with Homegrown stars.
The hiring of Estévez froze that process. The Spanish manager felt it better to supplement the roster with more experienced players as opposed to younger ones. A club that once considered a healthy youth setup its lifeblood did little to look towards it during the two plus years Estévez led the club. Some would argue the cupboard might have been emptied after multiple player sales. Others that the talent which came through wasn’t of MLS quality.
Those are subjective claims, and whether they’re true or not it doesn’t change the fact that the upward mobility of FC Dallas youth players at large halted under Estévez. That’s not the case for Luccin, who made it a point in his opening press conference to say that he would incorporate young players when necessary. He wanted to re-open the pipeline, which makes sense considering Luccin got his start in coaching at the academy level.
He’s delivered on that declaration in part. Academy products Tarik Scott, Anthony Ramirez, and Tomas Pondeca all saw their MLS debuts come under Luccin. In Leagues Cup Enes Sali saw brief action after coming to Frisco in the winter transfer window. With a fair amount of the first team roster either out of contract or on club options this offseason, there’s reason to believe some of those spots will be filled by players who have grown up playing in the Academy.
Even so the tastes FC Dallas supporters have gotten of their young talent, Scott in particular, have been refreshing. It’s more than enough to think that Luccin will continue to work in the youngsters as they arrive. Doing so could help the transfer strategy of the club: more young players on cheaper deals mean more cap room for higher end established players. It won’t happen overnight but Luccin’s willingness is the spark that should light the fuse sooner than later.
Closing thoughts
There are some I’m sure that will say FC Dallas is “settling” by hiring Luccin. That by not going out and getting a Gregg Berhalter, Bob Bradley, or someone else of similar repute they’re condemning the job status to mediocrity. While I respect the desire for elevation and success, it’s more clout chasing than anything else.
Consider this: If I told you FC Dallas was hiring a manager who could reasonably provide you around 50 points with the current roster state, would help multiple members of said roster reach new heights, and had a commitment to developing the youth infrastructure of the club you’d sign up instantly. For Zanotta and Hunt, that’s as simple as walking down the hall.
By the way all of this isn’t a guarantee. Soccer is a game full of mysteries and questions, both of which aren’t in any way predictable. Any manager of any quality deals with that. Ask two time MLS Cup winner Caleb Porter how it’s going for him in New England, or how the last like five Chelsea managers how their tenures went. You want a sure thing? Go buy a Treasury bond. Otherwise, you’re rolling the dice no matter the situation.
Based on the information we have, I’m more than comfortable letting Luccin be the man who rolls them bones. He’s earned it with his results in the table, from his players, and his vision for the future of the club. Sometimes the best answer is the one right in front of your eyes. In this instance, that’s the case for FC Dallas. I implore the powers that be to not overcomplicate things. Your answer is right there, all you have to do is say “Bonjour.”